一周一讲--当前的形势和任务

[破烂熊]

赶鸭子上架， 想想这个话题最实际。：）

08年股市大跌之后令人吃惊的大牛市持续到现在已经5，6个年头了。虽然牛市不言顶， 在股市各大指数涨幅均超出了绝大多数人的想象的此时此刻， 怎么保住已经拿到手的胜利果实， 采取什么样的投资手段， 方法和asset allocation已经成为各大小投资人的话题。 各位牛人也是经历过股市牛熊阶段的， 有的还经历过不只一次。 就你们对美国经济，股市及其周期的认识和思考谈谈我们当前的形势和任务如何？

我个人已经开始采取保守做法。 401K有大概30%的投资已经转到stable value。 每月进入的钱也已经做了调整， 在large cap growth, dividend fund and stable value 之间分配。 之后的打算是边走边看， 在周图出现lower high格局的时候会把401K转成现金。

[ecbb]

谢谢熊妹妹起这个Topic。这次的大牛市是在LongTerm， ShortTermRates都低的不能再低， 央行QE不停PumpMoney的情况下产生的，哪天Rates上去了，QE完全结速了，不会就自由落体了吧，当我老妈也想用退休金投资股市时，是该稳妥一些了。

[Huangmm]

有备无患。少挣点没有关系，比被腰斩强。

[melody2010]

泡沫是在那里，什么时候破是个问题。下车太早，miss牛市一样痛苦啊。2000年，2008年泡沫破灭都有催化剂，这次就不知道什么时候，什么原因trigger它。

想想上两次自己都愚不可及。刚开始跌就迫不及待接飞刀，真到底了又不敢动，涨回来又不敢追。现在账户里还捏着一大把现金，无处可投。当然了，2008年我做得比2000年好。2000年我割肉割在地板上，我割了没多久，股市就涨回来，一去不回头。2008年我至少学会了死磕到底，不买个股，只买mutual fund，死也不割肉。钱最后还都回来了，还小赚一点。但是miss掉这个大牛市，如果当时能够在底部all in的话，我现在应该可以退休了，也不要天天在码头扛大包了。

最近研究股票，第一点学到的就是，always be with the trend. 以前自己经常反着来，好容易决定跟着追高的时候，往往就是股市崩盘的时候。小散一定要跟着trend走。不要轻易bet on reversal。这次希望自己能学聪明点，情况不妙，趁早割肉，到底要aggressive一些，all in。希望下一个熊牛cycle, 能实现退休计划。

[njrookie]

I find it very difficult to trade at different time frame.

When I did some shutffling a while back based on short-term pattern for my retirement funds, I could not keep track of it all the time, and missed the re-entry.

So these days for 401K, 403b, 457 plans, where I cannot trade actively, I just leave it all in stocks and a property RE fund (not REIT), and stay fully invsested. I will not watch it or adjust allocation for years to come. New contribution these days all go to the RE fund for some cash flow income.

My problem is that my employer offers too many tax-sheltered plans, but do not offer any raises for almost a decade:(. So I barely take home enough to pay the bills after maxing out on tax-deductible contributions these days.

just my 2c.

[melody2010]

天道酬勤，在股市一定要勤快。割肉出来后，一定要盯着，记得及时回去。有时候事情一多，就忘记了，就成了permanent loss

[Huangmm]

股票深套着还没有舍得割肉。

[jeepster]

my 401K have been 70% Growth and Income fund, 30% short term bond/money market. My 401K plan only have 6 choices. I wish I could have more choices.

Within next 6 months, I feel energy services and financial services sectors still have the wind behind them. Muni bonds are also recovering very fast.

[人参公鸡]

[破烂熊]

公鸡兄厉害。建议版主让他开下期的每周一讲。

[Huangmm]

好期待!!

[njrookie]

[Huangmm]

We have around 20 funds available. For some catagory, there are 4-5 choices. Some funds have transfer-out restriction (usually 1 or twice per month), while some do not have. I chose four which are mid/small cap S&P 500,400, 600 to play around (take turns).

Last week was an exception, I usually do not move that often.

[jeepster]

"While a buy-and-hold, stay-the-course investor may suffer terrible losses from market peak to market valley, he will also enjoy every bit of both of the bull markets bracketing the bear, while minimizing the investment expenses and tax costs inherent in a more active pursuit."

[申巷九]

我的问题是不怕跌，就怕张，因为我拥有太多TZA,
但我感觉还不是山雨欲来风满楼的最后时候，看季报和就业等经济数据情况。

[njrookie]

NOT good for long-term holding.

the -3X ones are the WORST. time decay is tremendous.

[人参公鸡]

[ecbb]

[破烂熊]

周日写好贴上来。我也是没时间所以周日贴的。
等待人参兄大作。

[melody2010]

图文并茂，不错啊。

[比花花还花]

公鸡兄， 先存在 Gmail, 再 copy/paste.. 不会丢的．

[b52]

想想当年自组合的系统还是威力无比的， 就是股票不能空手套白狼， 还是房产回报更大。

[ecbb]

[b52]

[njrookie]

in trader's language: confluence.

[jeepster]

[SunshineInCA]

图标好高深哦。

严重同意。股市风险增加。

[b52]

I tried different software that allowing customized indicators, if anyone used thinkorswim, I give 5 to this tool. However, your mileage may vary