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通货膨胀与股市的中长期方向
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Re: 通货膨胀与股市的中长期方向
由 比花花还花 » 2014-05-05 12:37
怀疑公鸡兄 偷鸡。 把原来的帖子 Edit and post.. 所以系统没有反应。
这个....
这个....
just do it!
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比花花还花 - 帖子: 583
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Re: 通货膨胀与股市的中长期方向
由 破烂熊 » 2014-05-05 13:23
牛，对理解大盘和整体经济有帮助。多谢。
什么是隔夜拆息呀？
说实话，一直弄不清楚利息和大盘的关系。主要是不清楚指的是什么利息。从老大的贴来看好象只能是债市了。以后理解这个问题就比较容易了，I HOPE。
另外就是这次FED的QE是不是MESS UP了股市的内在规律？不知道还能有其他什么更好的解释来理解０８年之后的牛市? 如果没有，那么真的是能BUY AND HOLD了。
什么是隔夜拆息呀？
说实话，一直弄不清楚利息和大盘的关系。主要是不清楚指的是什么利息。从老大的贴来看好象只能是债市了。以后理解这个问题就比较容易了，I HOPE。
另外就是这次FED的QE是不是MESS UP了股市的内在规律？不知道还能有其他什么更好的解释来理解０８年之后的牛市? 如果没有，那么真的是能BUY AND HOLD了。
- 破烂熊
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Re: 通货膨胀与股市的中长期方向
由 破烂熊 » 2014-05-05 14:49
看来好象利率，房屋公司借贷，股市之间的关系比较大。其他公司因为利率低借钱发展对股市是不是也利好？总之低利率就是好。。。
- 破烂熊
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Re: 通货膨胀与股市的中长期方向
由 njrookie » 2014-05-05 16:01
the best way to think about the long-term linkage b/w stock and bond is thru so-called Fed model:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fed_model
At 17 PE, SP500 is not cheap. Historical average is 15. SP500 is cheap only relative to the yield of long-term bond. The spread of E/P ratio and dividend yield relative to current yield of long-bond, however, is still quite high, which pushes investors to take on credit and equity risks. The issue is that entry into SP500 at this PE level effectively locks in a lower expected return in the years to come, unless you are willing to short long-bond at the same time.
while in immediate and long horizon, bond yields are going up, shorting long-bond incurs other risks however in short term:
1 long bond in a panic can behave like gold.
2 also the yield of US long bond, while low , is still higher than similarly rate sovereign bonds denominated in EUROs. we are 6 month away from the end of tapering and QE, yet the long bond yield keeps on dropping lately. ECB and JCB are not backing off in the immediate horizon. the recent flattening of yield curve is largely caused by cross-border yield carry trade/arb.
just my 2c.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fed_model
At 17 PE, SP500 is not cheap. Historical average is 15. SP500 is cheap only relative to the yield of long-term bond. The spread of E/P ratio and dividend yield relative to current yield of long-bond, however, is still quite high, which pushes investors to take on credit and equity risks. The issue is that entry into SP500 at this PE level effectively locks in a lower expected return in the years to come, unless you are willing to short long-bond at the same time.
while in immediate and long horizon, bond yields are going up, shorting long-bond incurs other risks however in short term:
1 long bond in a panic can behave like gold.
2 also the yield of US long bond, while low , is still higher than similarly rate sovereign bonds denominated in EUROs. we are 6 month away from the end of tapering and QE, yet the long bond yield keeps on dropping lately. ECB and JCB are not backing off in the immediate horizon. the recent flattening of yield curve is largely caused by cross-border yield carry trade/arb.
just my 2c.
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Re: 通货膨胀与股市的中长期方向
由 njrookie » 2014-05-05 20:18
while mkt is at close to all time high, it feels very very tired. for situation like this, a bad day can easily wipe out 2 weeks worth of grinding gains.
- njrookie
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Re: 通货膨胀与股市的中长期方向
由 破烂熊 » 2014-05-05 23:25
恶补了一下有关知识， 看到这篇简单易懂：
What Is the Fed and What Does It Do?
The Federal Reserve Board's Open Market Committee is the single most important federal agency to the stock market.
Its action or inaction on interest rates has immediate consequences for investors.
The stock market anticipates the Fed will take a certain action, if that doesn't happen it can cause chaos.
The Fed controls key interest rates and its actions can have a direct impact on the stock market.
We hear a lot about the Fed as it is known, but what does it really do?
The Fed
The Federal Reserve Board is the nation's bank. It is a federal agency charged with maintaining a stable economy and strong financial system.
The Fed operates 12 Federal Reserve Banks around the country that serve as banks to commercial banks, providing a variety of services and ensuring a stable financial system.
You can learn more about the Fed's activities on their Web site.
The activity that has the most direct bearing on the stock market occurs eight times a year when the Federal Open Market Committee meets.
Target Rate
It is at these meetings that the target for key fed funds rate is set. This interest rate is the basis for all other interest rates and when it moves, other interest rates move.
Banks are required to keep a certain level of cash reserves on hand, depending of the level of their deposits. During the daily course of business, it is not unusual for a bank to drop below their reserve level.
When that happens, the bank borrows overnight funds from another bank until its own reserves are replenished. The interest rate the lending bank charges for that often-overnight loan is the fed funds rate.
The actual rate is set by market conditions, so the Fed only suggests a target.
Prime Concern
The Fed's primary concern is to prevent inflation from wrecking the economy, which can occur if the economy grows too fast. On the other hand, if the economy slows down too much, it will stall into a recession.
The way the Fed adjusts the speed of the economy is with interest rates. If the economy is growing too fast or inflation appears to be growing, the Fed will raise interest rates.
Higher interest rates tend to slow business growth and consumer spending.
If the economy is slowing too much, the Fed can lower interest rates, which makes it cheaper to borrow and that encourages businesses to expand and consumers to spend.
Conclusion
The Fed is the single most influential body in the U.S. when it comes to moving the markets. You should watch for their meeting announcements and pay attention to which way interest rates are headed.
What Is the Fed and What Does It Do?
The Federal Reserve Board's Open Market Committee is the single most important federal agency to the stock market.
Its action or inaction on interest rates has immediate consequences for investors.
The stock market anticipates the Fed will take a certain action, if that doesn't happen it can cause chaos.
The Fed controls key interest rates and its actions can have a direct impact on the stock market.
We hear a lot about the Fed as it is known, but what does it really do?
The Fed
The Federal Reserve Board is the nation's bank. It is a federal agency charged with maintaining a stable economy and strong financial system.
The Fed operates 12 Federal Reserve Banks around the country that serve as banks to commercial banks, providing a variety of services and ensuring a stable financial system.
You can learn more about the Fed's activities on their Web site.
The activity that has the most direct bearing on the stock market occurs eight times a year when the Federal Open Market Committee meets.
Target Rate
It is at these meetings that the target for key fed funds rate is set. This interest rate is the basis for all other interest rates and when it moves, other interest rates move.
Banks are required to keep a certain level of cash reserves on hand, depending of the level of their deposits. During the daily course of business, it is not unusual for a bank to drop below their reserve level.
When that happens, the bank borrows overnight funds from another bank until its own reserves are replenished. The interest rate the lending bank charges for that often-overnight loan is the fed funds rate.
The actual rate is set by market conditions, so the Fed only suggests a target.
Prime Concern
The Fed's primary concern is to prevent inflation from wrecking the economy, which can occur if the economy grows too fast. On the other hand, if the economy slows down too much, it will stall into a recession.
The way the Fed adjusts the speed of the economy is with interest rates. If the economy is growing too fast or inflation appears to be growing, the Fed will raise interest rates.
Higher interest rates tend to slow business growth and consumer spending.
If the economy is slowing too much, the Fed can lower interest rates, which makes it cheaper to borrow and that encourages businesses to expand and consumers to spend.
Conclusion
The Fed is the single most influential body in the U.S. when it comes to moving the markets. You should watch for their meeting announcements and pay attention to which way interest rates are headed.
- 破烂熊
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Re: 通货膨胀与股市的中长期方向
由 ecbb » 2014-05-06 9:50
Also FOMC has the power to trade billions of MBS to drive the market, their trade is not to make money but to stabilize the market as needed.
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ecbb - 帖子: 199
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How the Stock Market and Economy Really Work
由 破烂熊 » 2014-05-06 16:15
http://mises.org/daily/4654
too long to read, but here is the summary:
Summary
The most important economic and financial indicator in today's inflationary world is money supply. Trying to anticipate stock-market and GDP movements by analyzing traditional economic and financial indicators can lead to incorrect forecasts. To rely on these "fundamentals" is to largely ignore the specific economic forces that most significantly affect those same fundamentals — most notably the changes in the money supply. Therefore, following monetary indicators would be the best insight into future stock prices and GDP growth.
too long to read, but here is the summary:
Summary
The most important economic and financial indicator in today's inflationary world is money supply. Trying to anticipate stock-market and GDP movements by analyzing traditional economic and financial indicators can lead to incorrect forecasts. To rely on these "fundamentals" is to largely ignore the specific economic forces that most significantly affect those same fundamentals — most notably the changes in the money supply. Therefore, following monetary indicators would be the best insight into future stock prices and GDP growth.
- 破烂熊
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