退休金是不是应该经常挪一挪？

[Huangmm]

俗话说x挪死y挪活。我们的退休金是不是应该经常动一动呢？
今年的市场波动较大，个人认为经常动一动比不动更有利。
如何动呢？
首先要了解每个fund是干嘛的，risk level,是否紧跟大盘？
通常应该有fixed income（波动小，涨幅也小）和sp500之类紧跟大盘(波动大）
如果在大盘连涨几天的时候把钱从sp500挪到fix income,
连跌几天的时候把钱从fixed income挪到sp500.
你的账户就一直涨涨涨
有时候一天就1%
当然前提是你能time market well
我讲的有没有道理呀?

[jeepster]

I don't have that much confidence to time the market. But if you really want to do it, try this,
1. when the SP 500 is down 10% from recent peak, say within a year, move fixed income to SP 500
2. when the SP 500 is up 20% from recent bottom, say within a year, move SP 500 to fixed income

[ecbb]

About a year ago, S&P was lower than $150, so fit the criteria jeepster mentioned. Any fixed income option recommended?

[jeepster]

laddered CD, I Bond (treasurydirect.gov) and Vanguard short term corporation bond index

[比花花还花]

Jeepster 说的有道理， 短时间无法time market．注意有的账号有 挪动次数的限制

[ecbb]

谢老大！

[Huangmm]

I got some I-bond in 01/2013. so far return less than 1%.

[比花花还花]

利率未来一定会涨， 那么bond 价格一定会跌．

可能只能买中短期的 bonds....俺打算用 一般的 REIT income 代替 bonds.

[njrookie]

you can set automatic year-end rebalancing with your retirement fund providers.

moving b/w asset classes effectively implements a mean-reversion strategy:

you sell some winners, and rotate the funds to buy some losers to keep your asset allocation more or less constant.

you will perform better if the underlying markets are following mean-reversion, but you will underperform if the underlying market is trending a lot. In the latter case, you will sell winners too early, and buy losers too early.

it all comes down to time frame. mkt is a weird animal. it can be trending/mean-reverting at the same time depending on the time frame you operate at.

chasing winners are typically a losing strategy overtime.

just my 2c.

[admin]

last year when S&P500 had 33% annual, portfolio re-balance just back fired. Similar stories happened in between 1996-2000.